Enrollment trends and changes in Pleasanton Unified School District will be a main topic of discussion at the Board of Trustees regular online meeting on Thursday, starting 7 p.m.
A recent followup to an earlier seven-year enrollment project report by Davis Demographics found "a declining/flattening of enrollment with growth occurring at a modest rate and later point," according to staff.
"Much of the changes in the projections are related to the loss of enrollment in 2020-21 and the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic," staff said.
There were 410 fewer students enrolled in PUSD this year from fall 2019, particularly for TK and kindergarten classes. According to the district, "there are many unknowns and the situation is fluid for out year projections," adding that "in the short term, actual enrollment will remain flat and be somewhere between 2019 and 2020 projections."
According to district documents, the school boundary enrollment areas for TK through fifth grade projects expected to grow the most are Alisal Elementary with 216 additional students, 193 at Lydiksen, 89 at Hearst, 87 at Donlon, and 81 at Vintage Hills.
The Mohr Elementary enrollment area is expected to lose the most students (106). Otherwise, Valley View's east and west enrollment boundaries are both projected to decrease by 29 students each, followed by 28 for Walnut Grove, and just 8 in the boundary area for Fairlands.
A count of students living in the district's elementary school attendance areas, as well as transitional kindergarten, special day class and out-of-district students, came to a total of 5,948. 1,202 of those students are enrolled but not living in the attendance area.
The number of middle school students enrolled but not living in their respective attendance area was much lower, at just 261.
Total enrollment for grades 6 to 8 this year is 3,420, and almost perfectly split among all three middle schools -- 1,167 students at Hart and Harvest Park, each, and 1,064 at Pleasanton Middle.
Amador Valley High has 2,700 students enrolled this year-- nearly 500 more students than at Foothill. The alternative site Village High has 103 students, while other programs including Independent Study and Middle College have between 15 to 45.
In other business
* A second interim report states that this year's budget situation "remains fluid as the pandemic impacts continue," but warns the district is eventually facing deficit spending that is "not sustainable."
The district's total revenue at the second interim was $176.5 million, with 76.7% of that coming from Local Control Funding Formula (LCFF) including $4.2 million in supplemental grants. The revenue also includes about $7 million of one-time pandemic related and learning loss mitigation funds, as well as carryover revenue from last year.
Revenue for this year is based on average daily attendance for last year, and therefore the district does not expect to see a Local Control Funding Formula decrease. However, the district's projected potential loss of revenue for 2022-23 with lower enrollment is approximately $1.2 million.
Expenditures exceeded revenue in the second interim, coming to more than $183.86 million, nearly 80% of which was used for staff salaries and benefits.
Books/supplies (6.5%) and services (12%) were larger due to carry over from last year and learning loss mitigation funds. The district said about 85% of the one-time pandemic and learning loss mitigation funds have been suspended, and has projected about $7.6 million in deficit spending.
Staff said 85% of one-time pandemic related funds are already expended but there is "significant additional funding pending."
That includes the district's $4.43 million portion of a $2 billion dollar statewide in-person instruction grant program, as well as $9.35 million from a $4.56 billion state-funded expanded learning opportunities grant.
With district enrollment down more than 400 students this year as a result of the pandemic, staff is also predicting the district's new Virtual Academy can help with enrollment loss when it comes to LCFF funds.
For funding purposes, a slight enrollment rebound is projected in 2022-23, but still with a loss of about 150 ADA.
Staff called the update "an improvement" from the first interim but said the district continues to deficit spend this year. A multi-year budget shows improvements in 2021-22, but PUSD is expected to return to deficit spending the following year.
With fiscal year 2022 - 2003 expected to pose challenges to the district including potential enrollment loss and increased expenses, efforts will be focused on 2021 - 22 budget development, with a proposed budget to be brought to the board for discussion and approval in June.
* An agreement for continued work at Lydiksen Elementary School is slated for board approval on Thursday. After canceling the originally planned school for grades 4 and 5 on the same site, PUSD has since been working on a redesign to add additional capacity.
Staff is currently working with Bothman Construction on adding another 4 to 6 new classrooms at an estimated cost of $6 to $7 million, and said work on the kindergarten area "will begin as planned in order to keep the construction of the project moving forward while the redesign is taking place."
"We anticipate negotiations to lead to a reduction in cost for this board item and the final contract will come back to the board for ratification after it is executed," staff said, adding the newest lease amendment "is on budget and the overall project is trending on budget as well."