Posted by Homeowner - D.I., a resident of the Ironwood neighborhood, on Mar 28, 2008 at 10:53 am
You guys are funny. All the article is saying, hey, around here, it is not that bad. It is not even just Pleasanton Weekly, just the other day there was a news story that mentioned San Ramon and Danville as well. It all comes down to three things; location, location, location. That simple; of course we will have a slow down, of course in a slow down the home prices will drop, but what we experienced here with such a small drop, you can not compare to other towns. Anyhow, Pleasanton is great place to buy, and anyone holding back to buy for even less; I wish them luck, you can never time the market, if the price is good, you buy, you wait to drop, and price will jump higher. "Irresponsible to chearlead", that is a funny comment. As for the comment, down from previous year compared to previous month; remember, we are priced at "today" so increase over month is good, who cares where we were a year ago and compare how much lower things are?? So things will not be better until we match previous growth? Makes no sense to me, as obviously we are in a new market; tougher to get loans now (should be) so of course growth rate will be less; so it all comes down to compare with recent growth, not from a year or two ago. Anyhow, have to go for now....
Posted by Homeowner, a resident of the Ironwood neighborhood, on Mar 28, 2008 at 12:32 pm
Hi Homeowner - DI,
I do understand your point about the original article saying its not that bad around here. My main point is that no matter if market conditions are good, bad, or indifferent, the realtors will say its a good time to buy (or sell). They spin the news, the market, and the economy to fit their agenda - hey, its capitalism at its best and they should do whatever they can to make a buck. However, in my opinion, we as consumers should take what they say with a grain of salt. I think the article I linked to did a good job of dissecting some of the recent news and how it was spun.
You state that "if the price is good, you buy, you wait to drop, and price will jump higher." In my opinion, in this market with the current economic backdrop and credit conditions, this is absolutely wrong. If anything, in the very best case, prices will stay flat. All of the fuel that fed the housing bubble has been taken away, from liar loans and lack lending standards to credit availability and desire to buy these loans on the open market. Again in my opinion, prices will be dropping further.
Actually, comparing February 08 to Feb 07 is very relevant. It shows a dramatic drop in demand in an apples to apples comparison. Seasonal patterns in home buying should drive an increase from Jan 08 to Feb 08 and a measly 2.9% increase doesn't mean anything more than a dreary January in home sales was followed by a nearly as dreary February just when interest should be picking up.
Anyway, believe who you want to believe. My point is that the realtors are running a business and they spin the facts to improve their business, and in some cases, twisting the facts well beyond reality.
I could pick apart the spinning from the original article in the PW (why using median prices to get a return of 187% is inaccurate, his own data shows the price drops are accelerating, changes in foreclosure rates recently he doesn't mention, and the economy is good(!)), but like you, I gotta go for now..
One last item - if things are so good, why are there 2 home sales listed in this weeks PW? Why does Ponderosa have a sign spinner on the corner and willing to bargain now on prices?
You talk about the market like we are at the bottom. I don't agree, but time will tell.
Posted by Homeowner, a resident of the Castlewood Heights neighborhood, on Apr 4, 2008 at 11:17 am
I'd also point out that the comparison of the median price of $500k in 2000 and $830k in 2008 should be qualified. One must consider the increase of multi-million dollar homes being built in Pleasanton, which significantly affect the median price of a home in the area. It is safe to say that if your home was only worth $290k ten years ago, it's probably not worth $830k today, so inferring that those homeowners all realized a "187 percent increase in 10 years" is decidedly misleading.
Posted by Homeowner - D.I., a resident of the Ironwood neighborhood, on Apr 7, 2008 at 4:35 pm
Well...realtors are salesmen...I think it is the nature of all salesmen to have some spin or representation of facts that suit their needs. I tell everyone, statistics on the news are always misleading. For example, one year, don't remember the exact detail...but it came down to this...News was all over how one stretch of a highway had the most deadliest year ever; said 5 people died; funny, the total number of accidents dropped in that stretch; and all the deaths occured from one head on accident. So now; is the highway improving or getting worse? less accidents vs more deaths from one bad one...how you want to spin this; what will sell more ad time... anyhow...right now, I am laughing every time I hear "Mortgage Meltdown"... I laugh not at people who lost their homes; I laugh because it is not that bad; just as I laugh when people are saying release some of the oil reserves because gas prices are high??!! say what? because gas is more expensive you want to use emergency reserves??? save it to when opec decides to produce nothing; or we get nothing from mexico and south america...it is not an emergency as the mortgage crisis is not an emergency...people made bad choices, got loans they shouldn't, and now they need to pay for it...why should I, the tax payer, bail out these fools? hey, how about the compensation of these morgtage companies, 19mil i think to the country wide ceo, "performance bonus"; that is funny, 19mil performance for taking a company to bankruptcy, nice... i want that job, i'll do it for 500k.